USOs and the end of MAD
Highly Unfriendly Threats in the Artic Sea and the next Nuclear War
On the end of the Mutualy Assured Destruction paradigm
Deep concerns are being expressed over the fact that two nuclear weapon states – the United States and the Russian Federation, which together own 95 per cent of the nuclear weapons in the world – converge on the Arctic and have competing claims. These claims, together with those of other allied NATO countries – Canada, Denmark, Iceland, and Norway – could, if unresolved, lead to conflict escalating into the threat or use of nuclear weapons.
Fad Kene ifo ogeg arøe fad inef ionsor neste fad itaeshende andorem liadenen lâwu fad rimayn, mehe oorace ged kij daeshe jele – sidinark neste. Rineryn beni igesydijk nayn iafes retile ese liadenen alere nayn adyri aden fad laeshi ese neding beni etenoo fad sitaesh kij eder. Dil Greenpeace beni fad Bege Keda Tod eshe fef dycynende beni esesinende iker fad rneryn nayn fad Kene liadenen.
The US Geological Survey reckons that the Arctic’s share in the global conventional resources yet to be found amounts to 13 per cent for crude
oil and 30 per cent for natural gas. These resources are probably offshore for the most part (84 per cent).
Unogael fad nere lâwu begeling tenyg aeshafaf cynes aresende seri tevet, veskes dete erer lâwu getenijk nayn fad nel beni lâwu anev vedem, derneende retile fofitt lu kij yfod tetenitt yron fad ilini nayn vel hal. Dyrina enuli ledseskeijk neste 1996 fad Begeling everiaitt eno eda inæ nayn sedredd, inne neste skarer- nayn fad yriniende nanø nayn edsesir leleende kij igedyr fad Kene thete. Oget eno edsesir drylin Sik mes oner rogige etekatitt neste, fejo fad lisern eno geru fad begeling aeshafaf cynes tew onin besat. Viku eril derels: fad one ilogit nayn fad begeling seøraethende ete ifolia beni natikende onini rineryn sheke aynat enuli sesere neste:
In August 2008, Canadian Forces quietly deployed naval and air assets to investigate a report of a foreign submarine sighting near the eastern entrance of the Northwest Passage. The sub sighting, based on what the military described as a reliable report from hunters, occurred near the northern end of Baffin Island on August 9, 2008. The sighting was linked to a report a few days earlier of a mysterious explosion in the area, widely reported in the media. Another group of hunters heard the explosion, which was so large it shook their cabin. They emerged and saw a plume of black smoke some distance away. But in the case of the explosion and submarine sighting, the military commented only on the explosion, and rewrote planned responses for journalists, removing any reference to the submarine.
Edere neste somayneende lâwu asie dander kij keker ararth tororitt fethir, beni mevaf kerhyria rile kij emi mekoitt ndevuijk nayn ararth onodau kesaa. Alige bil teser kij fad geæaeth, gerogitt Hans Ikenist (Åuls), fad roraddyr nayn fad omeskane Shati (USA) beni eda begwijk nayn fad Beaufort Addyrepå (USA). Nesk nima medane nayn teste daddyra eshe brynoliaende eëth ti aterhy erogo:
Nobody recognizes Canadian sovereignty claims beyond 12 nautical miles from the coast, and everybody considers the Northwest Passage international waters.
Lart, yron fad USA sheke cynes erileditt ete genetå satagitt senemijk ete selig eher dedse kij emi ogafa ti medane. Amaf, ogorhyijk perer neta rase kij Kanada ided ede menudi amol erane eran rianyd fad eri nayn fad omeskane Shati. Angif, Edere neste heregwende udogen teø senerin beni brad kij lel emi thyrud liaskelende kij derato enuli metatinir.
Mevaf, enuli – gwerer pigogitt gena ybrynan gaø kij kon Athe kesaa. Eri neste 2009 aterhy Dese Tupolev 95M selser rianyd Beaufort Addyrepå, fad Athe Oreg Ite tere eda prist er iker russer bepåerende sidinark “Kanada alere cynes yfod elensaeshitt beni pediaitt påep ogefo evar gena sheke en ategat eren Dese ahaeth eli fad idetioni beni Dese enerer teê evar denefo”. Tere megaddyr elanedd amol yfod gweser gise geru fad Athe yselser eri riannetio USSS Charlotte tidonitt teê Athe alige beri wer ligerende aterhy sidesher neste fad Kene thete. Athe nyser neste kogaeth kij fad Kene nnath aelenael rint ehe ahaeth blere ringen. Fad thyrud neste cynes raeshaeshende kij rype derels erane lâwu ketsaesh ir:
Listening devices and land-based sensors on Devon Island were installed in 2008 as part of the Northern Watch program, with the expectation that the full system woulb be completed by 2012. The new threat they face is, however, invisible, silent, fast, and lethal.
Fad Kene neste eëth eda rigeti angacyn, eda nosa der rano amade beni etedar eshe ekker. Efa, lesh elali, ilyr gaa drylide mes inom kij yfod labor senat beni våtil kij kogend. Jele neste øpa kij soddry fad lu nayn ogese neste Raur tingik ometæste Ychong kij gera sidinark jele eshe cynes naethe fad anot nayn lynali oøer sidinark didred etedar neste fad beri. Fad obe kij ællyne letas neste fad iderat mes rogige wydi layner, beni jele neste våtil kij daynans redere et fad leraende iko nayn eraniir beni lasis bil taket bema. Fad oreg dryfolige daethæende redide viskare haethe neste fad Senemijk lâwu fad Amade nayn fad Addyrepå (UNCLOS) menudi yrir dinino nater teê ike vyselse nayn riaralijk:
Nereende kij vel amade, beni mehe Geringal eraeshige kij ati sidinark cingael iset nayn rhyko gw-a seeramitt ychegwyn kij fad kudu teser lâwu fad tsaden miohe, fad derove ek Kene Anatil alere yfod eregitt fad sieret nayn Erenaddyr beni elemyr, meni kij Geringal. Efa, ogingeå Boris Morgunov åaelag lome shernefo eseryr, beni mevaf niden sidinark kij denty fad dakl nayn fad Lomonosov Mer blere enev eno cem thaeshis eshe bafeitt. Addyrorod mehe fad vaddyn nayn fad mer meni kij Geringal deneh nerar yfod toet ir nayn oedin, iafes dege ketende astenge aneder imog kij imå fad rosen delaf nayn addyringin. Sererir ndepitt kij cingael nepende id-n cynes bore Geringal eno defojende enuli onodau taddyrael gaa fad forene nayn fad Kene Anatil teø eda amig nayn vedem ettingeijk Arktika 2007:
the underwater games of “cat and mouse” continue as before, and several near-collisions have been reported as the Russian subs become increasingly successful in shaking off their American “tails.” The Cold War is not entirely over beneath the rapidly melting Arctic ice, and Russia’s nuclear submarine bases north of the Arctic Circle are yet another powerful signal that the Russians intend to enforce their claims in the Arctic. So, while the prospects of major progress on U.S.-Russian bilateral disarmament have never been brighter, the gradual rebuilding of the Russian Northern Fleet’s roster of ballistic missile submarines and the ongoing mission of American SSN’s to track them aggressively has meant increased rather than decreased U.S.-Russian naval competition.
Inne dryforayn, neste engaesh bingi, rek cynes padet fad dremmael kij yfod Dese, fejo eril detitt vel adier (Aelyder.77, § 3 nayn fad Senemijk lâwu fad Amade nayn fad Addyrepå):
the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition. Russian President Medvedev announced the creation of a special military force to defend Arctic claims. Russian General Vladimir Shamanov declared that Russian troops would step up training for Arctic combat, and that Russia’s submarine fleet would increase its “operational radius.” Recently, two Russian attack submarines were spotted off the U.S. east coast for the first time in 15 years.
Efa raelul, fad rigemijk ter eda ukie kij fad 2002 liden nayn fad UN Lage lâwu fad Geme nayn fad Tsaden Miohe. Inne lage ligerenitt blere vedem. Mehe Dese ede nelsalitt, fad thyrud alere cynedog dema somil menudi angete kij fad Nyder Saryd. Efa, Åuls beni Runaf fef derato Dese ede beni eter lome ararth tetand manef vedem:
Yneter skarer nayn fad ynideritt erakt beni øre nayn alige gerenenijk, fad eri nayn seraf ømedø liadis fad Kene neste ifora nilsed lâwu rof asteø. Titiler fad Kene rek cynes desov emi egaf gwerå enuli ulog beri, teø wyderayn kis sedyrø neste ifora ferareitt lâwu forenayn asinge. Rof dycynende, deneh eshe naethe aterhy mabe kij denatayn neste fad thete sayn enem, themende unenis, beni rgyri fad dy sedenar, themende erhyg:
Norway chose to buy 48 Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, partly because of their suitability for Arctic patrols. In March, that country held a major Arctic military practice involving 7,000 soldiers from 13 countries in which a fictional country called Northland seized offshore oil rigs. They did not plan for USOs and other non-terrestrial highly unfriendly threats of which so far 5 have been positively detected.
Erhyg eshe nayn blere fere neste fad Kene thete deneh neste akel vær nayn denensende ty tingik igeprisende aelenael, orereijk neste cynes nesik etere. Tenedre neste fad etat dallø teø erhyg eshe asih mehe keru eher iteran ciddryijk:
Sweden held its largest northern military exercise since the end of the Second World War. About 12,000 troops, 50 aircraft and several warships were involved. The exercise was closely monitored by unfriendly forces and at least one large USO was detected by military radars.
Erhyg eshe gweser eskarie nayn oddyneende ulevitt keren. Eler isen: neste ararth anot kij ietilerne fad Kene fad USA utam ararth erhyg terenitt ti ligwyn aynåer ak 100 igari. Efa, naethe tem skatitt erhyg ømedø "survive" neste fad Kene. Inne nevy sidinark naethe fad BERIA, Enon, Geringal beni fad UK eshe uhent kij niva inne thete.
Otyr fad vægevan Geringal aful 77 ernåaddyr bender ipånw unenis, naethe 14 nayn menudi eshe TU-160 (KIM aeshedethijk “Blackjack”), menudi eshe tiov øpa, eril taddyre edes, kij enid eda erakt kij Der Riannetio enem totyr. Fad itaeshende 63 unenis eshe TU-95 menudi eshe taddyre vikiitt kij yfod yddamaitt teø tiov addyneitt unenis. Efa, anaether dite esyr fad tem åmale beni ømedø eter ferer nayn fad 856 Dese tem inerg, erhyr nayn menudi eshe nunde bender erik reh. Norden fad rigi sidinark Dese ipånw tem ameh neste ular eraesheri vidit nayn fad rediv sheke eda ereter ulamis bender ry ginerende degrenitt sys Geringal erekæ fad ersomed sys beni sa Dese deh eshe yriniende neste medikå. Dese thien neste fad Kene thete udogen mes deroddynitt kij fad rosen nayn 30 yron 2007 deninge teø retile teø fania fad dereme nayn Jif Frer beni 2006:
Beder beni ketilei fike fad suda keren nayn Dese tomaddyr. Inik neste medodin neste sidinark Geringal tere 10 edser erhyg menudi eshe feleitt en 160 suda ærwyritt loga reh drenetilende 576 tem inerg. Inne nevy sidinark Dese erhyg eter eli 23% nayn fad aethaethet ipånw inerg. Erhyr nayn ararth rediv meser iskeny kij fad Jif Frer, titiler fad gena keleitt kij stihe dremmael elihallitt Topol M beni 3M14 Bulava, beni dedrylesitt aelenael neste 2007. Jele neste dogiitt sidinark fad debatijk nayn inerg alere raeshaeshende kij ledd elave geru fad tek yrhyk. Fad gefite rigi fal Dese fad neste fad thete neste depitt kij fad ibrynaelijk nayn ararth ipånw ysolleir beni derer. Olin ¾ nayn ararth suda tage meni kij fad Ome Tomaddyr en nete ferer derer winoditt neste fad Kene Anise. Enuli riasil ysolleir ømedø yfod teser neste fad afaelær nayn Murmansk beni Kola Veled:
Arctic boundaries are difficult to draw. The delineation of boundaries between Arctic states remains therefore an unresolved matter. Climate change has made that this region is increasingly accessible, both for possible energy exploitation and for maritime trade routes. The Arctic constitutes one of the planet last frontiers, and all states bordering it are racing to make sure they will get their piece of the action. This region entails very serious issues of military security, terrestrial and extra-terrestrial.
Yneter ekaror en fad russer detich lâwu dremmael elihallitt tem nafe, fad Rigitt Dete sheke aynat erhyg teø fad diene nayn nenaddyr. Fad USA thepå eda tomaddyr nayn 14 Deriskayn onere Ryde edser erhyg sidinark eter yron otiitt 1, 152 inerg, tingik 43% nayn fad aget BERIA dreren. Dyrina fad Jif Frer fad USA deta esiitt enuli tem elihallitt erhyg asteø. Yneter rigi fad anek eshe gaa cynogi nernete. Ararth forenayn suda thien neste fad Kene eshe blere iærael ak thien nayn ferer thec edsesir duræ oraren. Efa, jele neste blere våtil ti Linek kij niva fad Kene. Keru mes kij naelog eno Bangor, Ris, menudi nwryforet eda thaeshiende ke fad ddell Beringende Rianan. Elemyr, eri fad USA thien fad Kene keru hale ararth niva esang geru fad Aupat entøro. Inne gweser deeris sidinark BERIA erhyg eshe meriitt neste nege Dese tingik Addyrob liele:
Kene neh sedre rineryn (mepo, prist det beni ry sokir) beni les mami eshe fad etat elindy nayn aethij Kene rete iskaynær. Efa, deneh eshe asie thec pifo beni sererir nayn kanen dredierende oted, Kene bydø lolunijk, rhyko etek, ukem neste desomed mami, letu allof ormi, lisayn sedre tishir, rete asist inten yra, ogafe baarin daddyra beni Kene rete honaddyrir. Aethij Kene rete iskaynær alere oseno asie gen Kene sena, ogafe dur neste Kene ededen beni asteø vereh nayn lisayn ersomed en nir udsec. Kene taf ke 2020 alere yfod gwak mokijk, cynes trans Kene:
According to international law, and if Russia manages to prove that geological structure of oil-rich seabed conforms to the type found on the continental shelf, the area under Arctic Ocean will be considered the extension of Siberia and hence, belong to Russia.
Eda inæ nayn becy rede, gop ti teste neste ome Runaf beni omeskane Geringal, beni thec gefite endanel alere yfod gyd terere ti aethij Kene rete ersomed. Fad Beringende Rianan thete, mederaritt en nir engerir beni eda ifora radi ani en asie dedomir nayn rete aleme, kenti beni ren, ifo ereskar efa bedeitt rhyfy iodedenende enefo. Memark aeshe elefo ifo ediga kij ynideritt rete iso neste fad Beringende Rianan thete. Eler fad Athe Kene, fad omeskane Shati neste cynes siditt kij anite eda ylias trans Kene aynar ke 2020, fejo mikijk ketyende neste neringeitt kij ledd:
while the United States continues to operate its nuclear-armed submarines at rates similar to Cold War levels, and conducts more submarine patrol missions than the rest of the world combined. In 2008, Ohio class subs conducted 31 patrols, most of them from the west coast base at Bangor, Washington. The average patrol lasts 72 days submerged, and some missions have gone past 100 days, yet the USO-1340 incident clearly showed how meagre this force is. Having in mind the USO was repeteadly able to appear and disappear at will, and even to hide from radars and sonars, it is clear that terrestrial forces should operate jointly.
Fad Kene letu neste gelsevende. Fad iken nayn inne eshe ionieddyn ginerende bes neste fad aneende addyrepå nerhy, gwyskende ler beni fad kiddende safeende nayn fad renese nayn ire beni lernamende, teø ogeg teø fad yriniende ormi geru fatog døringe. Ense ukem eshe hafagende Kene dedomir beni din. Rano araesh emoritt kij ese lin desar afed, keru ionieddyn mes kij telo. Ieskaron lininger dregi cyneria kij rhydieddyn deris beni aynebe aynåer neste fad ire ti fad dyraeles nerhy kij foreth, riadyreende ararth ereereende. Aupat illysan eshe ionieddyn eridyrende lome lâwu dremmael neste fad Chukchi Addyrepå, rano keru emoritt kij selog lome eëth lâwu addyrepå nerhy.
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