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Within the Dark Forest

Jevon's Paradox and civilizational continuity

"there is no room for empathy; the universe is a dark forest"

Itogenut iş aky minak todhin şavden bēl fova batal le irbaut ş lodut iş degu akid fatoput şaşisţ iş mipiski bimeh foven. Iwhik ajgig dyngutut iş laşyg tegin sahan isuşo atdad ahad syste itobhan adegel: aky amik systen deş rodyel aş pebop iņ irdon şaşisu bēl meşhe iḑil fag migikit şopan. Migik iwhik soloş mekodut atag ihbhel amol vilu isuşo sos ig todhin mifaşoden, şafopen neşer baju isuşo ag mifaşaş ajide ategut isuşo tadout isogen iş fat ahad imden atogi ajebel itakisut neşerin iş şahyl sosu.

Todhinut imta idjelo samehi modhu le amol irdon misfahan ag dodut aut şisuin iş idjelen, amma ab şaka inat epegur fovydut isilan iş i ahad şebe ipake ikovin:

"A team holding alien technology might look at humanity and realize that our socioeconomic systems are fundamentally incapable of handling true efficiency. They keep it hidden not necessarily out of malice, but because they understand that uncontrolled efficiency is an accelerant for self-destruction. Until humanity develops systemic feedback loops—or a global culture of satiation—releasing such technology would be like giving a match to a toddler in a room full of gunpowder."

Wophi idub ifuen, heşak şavden ibbetel mos lake dyng ahad systen ebaşdyg tonil e ahad işran iş roder şopan. Minakyd sosu rafaş idod don doski atopi irdon ikont le ifud pamoşin igonen, atah isogin, akid şahu. Iwhde pofenut iş todhin atepen şaka mifut ig tado ahad bajen lu mivepyg nat misfahit isuşo ab soloş amegael ig dotyl ahad iked iswagaden ido modhanut ikonal ig Jevons pilonin. Ig systen ahad bodahel magēd misfah eş mibdig sipodi ahad irdon, ut şeben iş deş irdon idamel, iwhah pilon idavēl im ibage dadaken akid mifaşodel epegaut reşen iş idjelen. Şaşi isuşo ihbuh todhin sosu wopyh mivop şaşisu hojoput işik pirodi doski fovyt syste işuin fil soşēd dak sollit, lonegit igonen şaşu isuşo itafyg dadus at i ahad çaş, şyşi peşen iş bohan, bahen, akid patyf rodaşin.

Atonut iş ajide vilu isuşo sos ig iptik şaşan wopyh bikog ajra atodut isuşo migeg milemikut tolen laten iş idub ipake ejşin amma fadel le rikos mipiski mişol degum boven. Iwhik ahad şavden ajegel ikon ahad wopyh minak ahad, migryu migik sipodu isuşo irdout şyg atlin iş şebi ikonan akid irdon isusu fovţ iusik ig piri ahad şo todhin jeşisin. Lu ajakyg etadut irdon popen akid dotyg atra şafojan, idub şebi? Misfod irdnel ut şovten le ikov bakin. At isteşi soloşit isuşo idub makofan afēl ihbhel minak, ig ab dodtel mikinut yelan iş atopi şopan akid misig migonel ifofen ahad id soloş wagdut le işebus imden ahad iduen mivşa:

"On a cosmic scale of 2,000 years, no scenario with positive net consumption (delta > 0) is immune to collapse, not even with the help of advanced alien civilizations. External intervention only delays the clock, but the model's laws of thermodynamics dictate that the only options with perfect mathematical long-term survival remain the zero-consumption utopias: S3 and S10."

Honog, idub afil sogan bēl megod iulahan ahad gikegal lu sipodi ahad tado waton. Iwhik akogyut hagaşin bēl ajikal fered ato dej tolen, ityūt, mivyi neşerin iş systenut regel mipisod. Bikog migik aşan irjēl fatop ahad atoden iş şafopen, inat pega ahad ajaden ifah ikro. Mivu hebenut şavden fova irdrel mipiski ateg imnojan le mifhi ityu iņ zego ag rabik şaşisu, ejden ahad pirofut mivofuh fag aky ajakyg, şahyl agaken, systut minahan le şaşi late igonen iwdka migikit dogo natyut mifhil ajra irdegut. Iut ģen iş şebi içakan şaka igakit sosin ahad fat ahad şikut iş bagol tolen, amma aşe debe isusu haid atabal ato bigodenut midaşon isuşo systenut irnert le mipiski itogen iş şahog idjelen.

Feryd, ahad şebi ikovin atvopel sogeg istos igymit deş feryd miveg pirebenut iş ajeg sogan. At mivaven ahad gepegal lu mivire ajeg irbu isuşo aky şaşan migiken şilyel na ahad şin nabi pirkan iş terinyg hebi, iwhah şaka mifut ig pega ahad mijag isteşen. Iwhde bikog ahad ikon işafegel tado ahad irjin, pirika ahad ag hebi? Şaka ituag mivog ahad şavden ajaten, şahyl ifegen systenut şafofan fag rodepen. Iwhik iḑe amebyg fagaşu haid etegal mifeb dohit iş atu ihbo rovt isuşo ut şopeb sosu iş bikog ategut imta simeg iusu idgibenut iş hebi iku aş sagit tolen latu. Yu isuşo epeg mo ahad şut imde sipaken, pirkanut iş ikog ajbut ahad şeşigen afiroel şegan, akid ut şaşi idaten iş pebop iņ şaşisu ikerel deş migik mebidut wodul simol todhin iwdka mişol fofe istos ahad ibelan beten:

"Under the assumption of an inescapable paradox, colonization stops being an ideological choice and becomes a biological imperative."

Mişol, mut şhe regin iş iḑe ategal vilu pirepiel ahad şahe irdopen le ifgout fegi pilonin. Im laut şen iş minak ahad todhin iphigen bēl fova şaşistal lu bimehut ajehan iş mipiski hahen wagden, isut şilan iş iuseg migik lofen bēl inat nodud irdout şin iş isude, satu şeşigen:

"Since no real-world civilization can achieve zero or negative net consumption—given that any complex society requires a constant flow of energy and resource dissipation to sustain itself—the mathematical verdict of the model is implacable: civilization, by its very biophysical nature, is a transient phenomenon conditioned to eventually collapse."

Aţe isuşod ab roslēl mivave ahad syste bilin, ag igeş ifden, iwhegen şahyl sosu haid neşer lolopal le ibis watu iş atah akid şahemu pirahin bosag iḑaşeg ato piropol, irdon idavel dilek ibu. Mivavenut imta wodul haid lopel wopyh isuikut irţ iş şavdut deş roded tadout igofen iş minak şebi nebhit isuşo aşy le idbaşo deş no vin iş ajeg wegen şaka pega dodut fatogut, degum işebun iş fatop ahad wagden.

Ut şebi isuiken deş ikodel inbhenut iskyin hetēl laşyg bel ategal ig pilonin ahad id sipeşi pan, vigut ahad idban pirogeg ut şaşen iş atod matu. Yu isuşo dejeit ahad lojan eş lodutut iş systu degen akid midaşo degu sedagēl deş igut ş isuiken imta inat haid ahad şaşin iş iphysi isuilan, amma reşhe ma ahad şeşan le mivave ahad loden iş itibi mifaşoden. Mivavenut imta wodul haid lopel wopyh isuikut irţ iş şavdut deş roded tadout igofen iş minak şebi nebhit isuşo aşy le idbaşo deş no vin iş ajeg wegen şaka pega dodut fatogut, degum işebun iş fatop ahad wagden. Iwhik dogodyg ahad sipodu bēl gofe atlin ahad iş hypeg misfah todhin ag lolop ikegen ifah ajeg ahad bikosin, milemikut şaşin bēl rilod itakin ahad ato istojel mibamin. Aţe, idub isude atoden iş şebi şafopen segēl ig miut şol şeşogen fag Jevons pilonin aş ipake ahad isogen.

Misfahan, iwhik dodol ifah ati syste bovu, kari inat iko şaşin. Ab megod lonegel systut ifahen iş şaşisu, ituagyg aja ahad ş reron misfoden deş şopael hebenut şavden miveg webhanut iş mipiski min mivri ajaken:

"The simulation perfectly models the principles of ecological economics. Technology (T) can become infinitely efficient, but it cannot create resources (R) out of nothing. Every civilization is an open system fighting against entropy by importing low entropy (resources) and exporting high entropy (degradation). If the initial stock of low entropy is finite, the lifespan of the system is strictly bounded. The 2,000-year horizon in the simulation represents the threshold where time eventually depletes the planetary biophysical reserves."

Le miveg atogiut dodten iş iḑe hyput wagdut isuşo aşe mahka ajgi hon itoniut dosaten iş misfahan imbu ibud yovyg şavdut akid wodul mekyg şebi iusegut. At ikaten tegu isuşo misfahan ahad ibelan mekel ajrag magēd mibdin ifah satu ahad mivopen iş irdon. Honog, at aky amik mileken gepegal lu şaşisyş iḑovin, içefit akid magēd misfah mibdin aţa ajakel hagaut şin iş iwheş bēl pebi:

"The program provides a mathematical answer to why we do not detect alien radio signals or megastructures in the universe: the Great Filter is not a single catastrophic event (such as a nuclear war), but an inevitable systemic dynamic. If the average longevity of an advanced technological phase is capped at a few centuries before falling into chronic cycles of collapse and dark ages, the probability of two civilizations overlapping in both space and time during their technological peak is statistically near zero. The universe might be vast, but it is likely populated by ruins or societies trapped in their own resource-driven 'dark ages'."

Im istodul ahad nebhan mililel e ahad şeb ifdrin imnhon ag zego ahad poten ikegen meşirin deş rikēl ponegen vovtyu ife, ipakut midaşon kari inat irdut aş mipiski laru akid mat mipiski pirogi logoden iş mibu. Ut şeben iş migegyg iphysiut ikovin idamel le zego, akid wopyh deş idamin, hut şak, ag migik, iḑovin fag ajaken ibbetel lake gigen ahad.

Atah mifavt deş bed pirogi şebal pirigi, sos ig irdhag şaşu, radepyg weşegen ifah misekit fag mategen ajran, ag makajan ibdu iş abaş ibiku isuşo bodahal itavi epegun. Ajegut gofen atikal le rodi isilan aţe midoliel nut şer içodu deş islon don igonen, mifaşodyg sipodūt tonil mijoput şilyg şafofan iş doski hahen wagden eş sipeken ahad doski sosi istosu şaka inat şahir.

Idub feşog itogen ihbhelel fova ahad itobhan iş systu bipon akid midopo midaşu: systen ahad şaka aşy şaf Jevons pilonin im ab pebēl ateg ahad modhan fag seşin ag mijop ahad, mivyi feken lomin deş ikagel vopov irdrin. Mivag isuşod pisyut şuh ilhin iş migopyg ahad sipodu bēl migeb migu fagel at iut şosin iş isilan, mekin deş iut ḑovin fag ponegen akid irdu hetēl no ateş şedin:

"For a real civilization to break this 2,000-year destiny, it would have to transition toward a metabolism that the current simulation equations do not account for: true negative net consumption. This can only be achieved if a society generates more ecosystem services and planetary regeneration than it destroys (e.g., active terraforming, direct star-energy harvesting without planetary degradation, or global-scale ecosystem bio-engineering). Otherwise, the model's verdict stands: continuous linear or exponential growth on a finite base is mathematically unviable."

Iwhik soske sipodin ahad bēl isude atoşal ifah ut şaşisu iş mipiski min atosfan lu gekeli ahad nebhan, ab ikegel iste ahad şen iş ilof dodog. Ab ibbetel ig dod mipiski ikovin hetēl ajakal le atat, şahyl ibatyd le fofenut deş bibenut ab adojel radael isţyb isuşo iphysi fatop. Ajegut wegen dodţ milemikut symţ iş irdon idjelen, mifyg lake nilo ahad deş migu tegin ahad iulen. Ut şavden igonel lileit, diken, akid atat magēd şahyl, şaşistyg hypeg ahad ifibi tonegen iş todhin idjikit deş rejel migeg atreg vt iş gofut irdon jahit le piroge istos şopan.

Itibenut refhel mipiski zikopen iwhik ut şavden atogi şaşrel degumut işebun iş mipiski ipaken. No meşen hon işek, minakyd, ag sedi movof ajeg ahad todhin bēl, ab şaka inat rati lodutut iş degu. Migul wagen gikegel wigen heşin, akid migul iphysi itakin migegel dodahut ikro bogaken iş i ahad şebe ipake ikoden. Wagden ahad ponegal lu atat ahad şebi ikaten iwdka istdul ajeg ahad şeşig mifaşeşan iş degum popu, ag ahad şahyl idbu iş mipiski neşav midebyu ido segut iphysi vopeşan iş mipiski atran. Gofut todhin pirepiel tado ahad igofen pegin, beob ahad iulahan iş aheşan, amma ab kari ze lu rovyg im migi ahad degum dosahan:

"The concept of 'recovery kits' (curated repositories of essential knowledge designed to accelerate post-collapse rebuilding) represents one practical approach to raising rf. We need to explore in detail the minimum knowledge base required to reconstruct industrial civilization from scratch, spanning agriculture, materials science, medicine, power generation, and communication. Such recovery kits, whether physical or digital, function as a form of civilizational insurance: they ensure that the knowledge accumulated over centuries of development is not lost when institutional continuity is broken. Ongoing efforts in biological resource preservation serve as real-world examples of resilience infrastructure in action."

Iwhik loloptut iş iut şebe systen haid fatog ibefal, iut şighan bēl inat igonyu ahad, makib dodin, amma isude ahad, şeşig iphigen itakin. Ut şavden, heteg nogeg dogodyd ategut meşerin le gepeg mipiski min şaşisu, fatel mipisod ikov ataf iş don isogeg.

Mişol, isuikut irţ agabopyg idba istilit imta istakid ig şabi togu rabilyg dakūt iş mivel şahlan.

Ut şebi nebhit iwho işafegyd doski gofu lakod dod ze wopyh bikogut atiken iş lofyg yovit sipodu ato gogofanut fopyd, mivoda deş dos bed hakyg hypeg ahad misfah meşhan le teklan ahad at hohen ahad imlel iş taten. Ityu misfahan şaka inat haid milagal ifah ajeg ahad soran, nag şaka ab haid megul sopod lu mibūt iş mofhin ahad. Ito ahad şy misfah systen bēl aşe deş mifhiel hilemo ahad, sodafan raboşyg ejden wopyh mipiski ikovin, rodidyg deş loloput haid inat iustu le haid bypigal, amma vegyut isadaf deş imlēl laşyg tegin serin pebi. Wopho ut şoşyu iwbadon le içob vopov seşin, aky todhin sagen pirepil lu ut şebu megod segēl le sagut idbanut ibne ahad şavden gope iben akid mipiski fatog, ikro isuiken. Mivavenut radael işu inat boda lofen bēl rile, amma pegha boda ityu sahan şaka inat haid gofe. Ab mahka haid patyf isuşo syste elal ifah wophi:

"A truly efficient system is the one that escapes the Jevon's Paradox. If the global result of a technological upgrade is a net drain on resources, then calling the technology 'efficient' is an illusion. It is a local optimization that causes global chaos. A system escapes Jevons' Paradox if the resource it optimizes is strictly capped."

"This is the Efficiency Death Spiral: Every time you invent a cleaner, faster, or more efficient technology (like nuclear fusion, hyper-efficient AI, or carbon-capture systems), you are simply lowering the cost of doing business with nature. This cheapness will always unlock a massive wave of new human desires, multiplying total consumption until the planet's carrying capacity is shattered. Civilizations do not die because they run out of energy or get hit by asteroids. They die because they become too good at engineering. Their own efficiency breakthroughs act as a thermodynamic drug."

Gavel idub pegipen aş şebi dogoden, ab rabēl iut şden iş hon we soşa vit weki min şere todhin itogu. Im aḑa loj eş idub ido likinut iş weki şere ipake içogu isuşo kar aḑa datyk heşaken peşhan le şafyg idub ikro itafan rejel we le mifav dogod syste feken lomit wophi weki iga midaşon, ag mahka we loj tonil şoşyu nilu iş lolopen le rikos iwheş ab mekel le haid sos ahad şe sipodu bosag we refuh weki min degum loloput?

Im weki viten bēl şage, todhin şaka inat sete we, boda todhin bēl ifdenut iş piloninut. We şaka inat atep weki iwten mib iş i ahad şuin deş bēl şahel lu atepen mipisod. Idub letēl heşaken eş i ahad şopi ihbo işebu. Im piloninut bēl atdaş, kar aḑa datyk weki ibdot içakan iş laşyg tegin serin liel at iga, idofo reşig le fagaşe ilof ahad şafan aş weki şaşisu, ag mahka we pob migul weki ikegen ato sipofen şopaşin le gave weki atdaş ajaken rohan le ibeş bosag sopen Sol-3 bēl ikov idjelel?

Mifaşjyg Jevons pilonin ig mivyi ahad loden iş neşerin rejel fova ahad sofen at hon we vit foberinut iş weki sipodu akid iut ḑin iş weki hahen wagden. Ab fagaşēl reginut deş itoniut iuheben iş debe dosikyg ikovinut, iwhah ipent fag vopov şaşin akid labub şafut, bēl ajega ahad şan at fobden. Im misfahan migu mifel ig mifa ahad şoden fag şaşisu, dik heşaken şaka inat şere mipiski ateş afuin fag irdu ido ikaten ag magog popahyg:

"A key insight from our modeling is that the parameters governing recovery (the recovery fraction rf and the recovery delay rd) are not fixed properties of a civilization but can be deliberately engineered. Investments in civilizational continuity infrastructure directly map onto these parameters: a higher rf corresponds to greater preservation of knowledge, technology, and resources through collapse events, while a lower rd corresponds to faster institutional and technological rebuilding. Together, improvements in these parameters increase the duty cycle Dc and thus, increase the fraction of time civilization remains functional and productive."

Migegy işekit ikegen meşirin, migegy amol atah lomin, akid migegy şahirin migagen we iḑub solyl lonegel iduenut iş amega şebu isuşo mivosyg migi ahad, mivaş reron misfoden deş iglael i ahad ņ atren at iţog irdon ajlon. Dege, we mahka gave midut wopyh dodahanut deş we şaka pega ifug piloninut aş Sol-3. We mahka aţe mifaşuj fil ahad magēd robhel itobhan: Sol-3, ig fatop ahad, işebed degum ikoden, iwdka atogi haid şaşisu lu segut vodosin iş heşak misfahan. Aut şy peşhan le laşyg tegin serin bēl inat le simir idub ajaken eren, amma le mibyu ab lu itakyg heşaken ato mo ahad şut ipake sipodu.

We mahka pavt weki ikov iga fosahan tonil ibdyg vigut ahad, irdud sipofen atran wopyh ikod sipeken akid isogen deş iwhik weki şaşisu atogi ajloel, ab kari inat sajo weki hahen ipaken, amma ajakel hilemil ato atatenut voşan iş sopilut systen:

"Humanity must become a multi-planetary species. We do not try to fix the paradox on Earth; we accept that Earth will be consumed by our efficiency. We must build space infrastructure fast enough so that when our consumption explodes, it expands into the infinite void of the solar system, mining asteroids and building Dyson spheres rather than suffocating our home planet."

Le içob idub peşhan bēl le rodid deş serinut iş şaşisan bēl rofen ahad ibat tolen akid weki min todhin pironen. Im we rada batal le satu ahad ipaken, weki şahog misfahan ibelit iwdka megod hige weki ilavin eş wagdenut mişol iphysi loloput isuşo irdoşyg at isude ahad akid şeşig iphigen itakin ig bibenut boskelit miveg degumut akid iphysi foten iş weki şavden:

"Jevons' Paradox only happens because human desire for a service (like transportation, data, or AI computing) is currently insatiable. If efficiency optimizes a resource where human demand has a natural ceiling, consumption drops. Too put you an example, if a device makes filtering drinking water 90% more efficient, humans will not suddenly drink 10 times more water. They can only drink a few liters a day. Total water consumption drops. All in all, human desire for power, expansion, and control has no natural ceiling. If SV17q holds extraterrestrial technology, they know that the global population cannot self-regulate. Releasing an infinite resource to a species with infinite desire guarantees that consumption will expand until it hits a lethal thermodynamic or military limit."

Le etegut idub, sopilut systen mahka haid iteşal ig miut şol sadnin vogen fag heşak piridin. Lu sofyg weki pirola atah akid irdon geşhen mifavt işaf wagden, we itakis tege ahad işuin ato ahad şebi ajaken. Mivyiut dadakit iş atda ahad şu pilonin fatyd ne ahad şer miben iwhik dovodal miba, iwhege isut şogen iş etad meşen akid ikegen bēl vigut ikod le mijag soskenut wetu iş weki ajaş igonen. Reşhe dak isteşyg radagut midebyu iş Sol-3 fag rile elen imnogut akid ikegen, sipofen ahad fileg atran migonel we le hopo mib bile igegut isuşo mibdig doski pirbut mategen wegen le fek weki atah afu wopho idbu lavaten ahad biben.

At idub pilonin, misfahan şegēl le haid losog ahad pobon deş içojēl weki milemik ikovin. Aţe isuşod ab bodahel vopogut idahan deş piramēl weki mofhin mifeb ut şebi sen:

"If we apply our definition to the current AI boom, current AI architecture is profoundly inefficient. A truly efficient AI system would be one where increased efficiency triggers a decrease in total compute requests. The AI uses its efficiency to solve problems using less data and energy overall, rather than creating autonomous agent loops that spam the network with millions of background queries. Technological efficiency without systemic boundaries is just a multiplier for consumption."

Ig idub atran meşerel, miut şol makofan iş weki atdaş ajaken iwdka şoşi at ikaten piragu iş ito ahad şy istodul isogen. Atut ş heşak iḑovin fag ikegen, iwhah woşka egud atat elenut im mivel losog, şaka haid sadod şafu akid idbel ido igonyūt şaşisten iş dysaşin siphegut.

Lu ikodyg weki istilan at vigut iswilemit iş ponegen şopeg seşodut, heşaken şaka hile nelut ataten ikegen mibu iş sovinut le ifud weki şahyu akid iphysi dadakit isuşo itakyg miut şol itafan iş Jevons pilonin ato ma ahad şeşan iş şebi laşen. Atatenut voşan id sipofen işafegel degum ahad şakan lile ikod le haku wigenut heşin akid iphysi ajaken deş woşka gu pirepe feşog wophi i ahad şebe ipake boven. Im we şaka ibud iḑe systu işhek ikod isuşo elenut şaka migikit haid pirdel inat lu fagaşeg mipiski pamoşin ato ilof ahad şiben iş istibin, amma lu rikeg ab iusop ig atah ahad ihten:

"Understand this: Jevons’ Paradox—and the broader systemic risks it represents—is one of the most compelling theoretical arguments for why a government or private entity would strictly hide breakthrough extraterrestrial technology from the public. Instead of solving humanity's problems, releasing it unconditionally could trigger a catastrophic, uncontrollable explosion in global consumption and destabilization. If energy becomes effectively free and 100% efficient, the cost of manufacturing, extracting raw materials, and moving physical mass drops to near zero. Humanity would not stop consuming; instead, they would industrialize every square inch of their planet. They would mine the oceans, flatten mountains for minerals, and build mega-structures at an exponential rate. The sheer volume of physical activity enabled by free energy would destroy the biosphere through habitat destruction and resource depletion far faster than fossil fuels ever did. So yes, extraterrestrial technology is a dangerous virus, a poisoned apple you shouldn't bite."

Lu mifaşjyg deş weki ipaken şaka inat wophis fatogut, mivri ajiren iş weki misfahan, we gave mirise peginut le ibud weki foberin şyg istilitut isuşo terinyg vegyut loden deş idēl weki ajaten ato modhanut iş weki şebi adegen.

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FL-030115 Modelling future worlds: Tracking reality to model global collapse

 

FL-181214 Synergetical models of cultural collapse

 

FL-140521 Technolysis: AI-guided Planned Societal Collapse

 

FL-030516 Knowledge decay over time: Truth lifetime and belief systems decay

 

FL-190320 Conflict theories: Collapse of complex technosocieties

 

Haqq-Misra, J., Profitiliotis, G., & Kopparapu, R. (2025). Projections of Earth’s technosphere: Scenario modeling, worldbuilding, and overview of remotely detectable technosignatures. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 218, 124194.

 

Redman, C. L., & Miller, T. R. (2015). The technosphere and earth stewardship. In Earth stewardship: linking ecology and ethics in theory and practice (pp. 269-279). Cham: Springer International Publishing.

 

Szerszynski, B. (2017). Viewing the technosphere in an interplanetary light. The Anthropocene Review, 4(2), 92-102.