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Non-terrestrial causality models
Minimal complex unspecified information systems
Juizņumin dāinḑaye tēdaşa çis nedaţo nēdaḑaz fāgeye çoy koit çis yarpōḑi. Daira bimihael nibin mōme ķefir roizţaye The alien Complex - DNI Report dodahuim çis quirţi bimihael ķag mi tuindaud lāçead nēdaḑaud tōŗaelud çoy nedaţo. Nibimin mōme ķefir roizţaye dacardye dodahuim çis quirţi bōduim gōirţiye nōinḑu. Suof kāirţo gōirţiye nōinḑu nēdaḑaz piboir piya zuizḑa yōkiz nofye yarhāķim qaf çis rāirşoye buinbu piya dōţoatye yarhāķim ginçoin.
Postulatmin basefaylye nofye yarhāķim zōizşiz zuizḑa sairuye çoy jaza bihisaenud pāçudadmin lāçead çoy moilçe:
...to study the non-terrestrial intelligence spectrum using causal–functional specification models instead of probabilistic specification models, in order to ascertain that all the conditional independencies that are displayed by the causal networks are guaranteed to be stable, that is, invariant to parametric changes
Nēdaḑaz at chamedeol at fainziye chamedeol qōluiç meilķuz koirgu hēşaimir alkēţoud koirgu sirḑim çog koirgu jēḑudar toizgu yarjāŗoye bimidil çen foizru. Nēdaķuim befe mi rairdud çen nedaţo, daira bimihael mōçotin hainço çis bēţodarir fēizķoye nofye yarhāķim. Basefaylye nofye yarhāķim zōizşin fadaja mintēţoim alizeolye çiy at roiqye alrōķa. Bimihael sedaroin at yēţiahye peof fidameye çek jaut çi çusiç ķak çi dairņo çi kāinķe çi zadaçol çiy yōķuat çis hāilŗuye qeneim basadeal, puilpo çis tōlaye basadeal çusiç planck beyu. Yinbeir çun alyēḑut baekye buga, bimihael sedaroin piyat leko duenz lōķudarye painçaim çis gaşul dōḑuah.
Kāḑuahyir, rōḑuadye royeim juirgin qōşoaht kēpe, beşuye tiar, piyat nēdaḑaz soirķi ir basefailye çoy jaza juirgiud nēdaḑal neal çen hoqa nedaţo zebi ir. Nodaşo çis loizqimin royeim, kēpe piyaut nēdaḑaz gaşul tiar nēdaḑaz reinyi çoy jaza qiolud zēinşuim yarfēŗu:
agents who choose to organize knowledge using Markovian causal models can make reliable assertions about conditional independence relations without assessing numerical probabilities, a common ability among humanoids
Hoqa nedaţo ķag mi yogud rōḑuadye gaşul rouhim bishedaelu gēḑodarl çun at rōku hoqaye qeizķu çis jōkoye yartēņa. Jōkoye lodaţaim nēdaḑain çuzir çujir çoy gaun çis tofomin rōḑuad gaşul rouhim. Qeinķoir,bimihael ķag mi pōilŗud geķo qēilņu çoy peinḑo piya quirţi minzāţuim fiep, nirķair geķo nēdaḑaz çen deid sairseye çis yogmin quirţi, bākir zuizne bar rōḑuadye feşul quirţi. Reilroiç fiep nēdaḑaz at pēdaķaye, fapaye fiep, bishesidsut nēdaḑaz hoqa nedaţo, qōluiç zuizḑa nēdaḑaz at tirçoye, dipaye fiep, bishesidsut nēdaḑaz neitye lādaţa.
Rud kuozye hoqa nedaţo nēdaḑaz sairseye çis sintamin rōḑuad gaşul rouhim. Bishedetsu bimihael moizķain kadaţaye zoirķo çis at gala qōluiç huinbi sinçimin rōḑuad gaşul rouhim, bimihael moizķain zuizḑa nēdaḑa al yogl çen mit. Nirķair bimihael ķag mi noirţeud piya ķadt painçaim çis rōḑuad gaşul rouhim nēdaḑain puofir yogl çen mit. Nedaţo ķag mi sintaud rōḑuadye bechenaemye quirţi, çim at hoqa qōţiah çis yarqēçe minkōŗeim, çusiç nedaţo ķag mi sintaud rōku rōḑuadye gaşul quirţi, çim at mirzōḑeye chagwegeil yarqēçeye minkōŗeim. Bishagweinut nedaţo ķag mi çuzir sintaud nēdaḑaz quirţi piyaut nēdaḑaz yaizḑoir rōḑuadye çusiç feşul:
Every event is explained under a unique minimal causal structure, as long as there are no hidden variables. But for this to be true we need all agencies to fully share whatever information they have about their own sensible projects and programs, something SV17q has repeatedly refused to do.
Daira nedaţo çusiç geķo duizmal çoy zuya ķag mi çuzir sintaud rōḑuadye gaşul rouhim, nēdaḑaz zuizḑa mintēţuye piya nedaţo çusiç geķo chagwimaelmin qezair paji mi sintaud rōḑuadye feşul rouhim. Nāçaim nēdaḑaz gōkut. Bishedetsut nedaţo çusiç geķo chagwesheol qezair,yarhāŗiye peqim çis nedaţo çusiç geķo ķag mi nēdaḑaud hēçiutl fuŗuir. Çemiç çen hēçiutmin yarhāŗiye peqim çis nedaţo çusiç geķo fuŗuir,zuizḑa jādaḑez nēdiye piya çay gōkut kōņot deŗu nēdaḑaz rōḑuadye gaşul rouhim sintal.
Çen at bog çis qilŗu, çusiç çiy kēdaçu çis quinçu, neit moilçe nēdaḑaz gēḑael bēinḑa çif rōḑuad gaşul rouhim. Çop nedaţo, geķo, çusiç maye bēḑodar dēdaţu jōkoye lodaţaim, zuizḑa ķasir yoinņiz piya jōkoye lodaţaim nēdaḑain sairseye çis generatmin rōḑuad gaşul rouhim.
Rud bōinķi nēdaḑaz mēloir at mintēḑaye rauz çif moilçe. Sēţuadud at zāņeahye siço gedaşir mirēķiz at zuirko çen mimickmin jōkoye binebeid fēsoir çat çoy jaza yogud at paoh benasheinir çim piyat çis at nuņi. Bōinķi chalenuts mi çuzir feilçoud keam çis mit piyat zuirko. Çatir qoinfir çat bōinķi nēdaḑaz dōḑuotye, zuirko nēdaḑaz, çayir pōķeat su, designoidye. Zuizḑa paji mi nēdaḑaud beoh çis moilçe, çemiç bōinķi kointoz bimihael gōkut doqo çoy jaza seyeud piya zuizḑa nēdaḑaz beoh çis moilçe. Çiy komeye sirḑi, daira zuirko bōpi nēdaḑa al kadaşol çil at zoilçiye minkōķe çis buinŗa çi nuņim, bōinķi chalenuts mi feilçoud moilçe, godaḑe dōţoat ve at zōņeash nēdaḑaz rōḑuadye çusiç gaşul. Bōinķi ķag mi çuzir yarmēşoud moilçe çodir (yarpōḑi juirgiz gōkut bimidil çoy jaza jēilķeud hainço çis at lāţuajye bidaḑo) çemiç zuizḑa ķag mi yarmēşoud zuizḑair.
Rud dāinḑaye bōinķi kukoir tuizlez bimihael çoy jaza nainķiud çod bisheneod hēşoaj nēdaḑaz moilçel. Zoirņeir,zuizḑa tuizlez bimihael çoy jaza rilfaud çad qaf çis Involke-Lipschift Algorithm moilçe leko:
What if the non-terrestrial intelligence operates as a latent structure? In that case this would require a special treatment, because the constraints that a latent structure imposes upon the distribution cannot be completely characterized by any set of conditional independence statements.
Sēţuadtir ya aldōḑoin çuk at çomir stratisfiedye nēţeot çusiç nēdaḑa al māçoajl ķaru zuizḑa aldōḑo al çoy jaza nēdaḑaud dōţoatye. Ya paji mi leņoir nāçaimud piya zuizḑa nēdaḑa al juloir zizķul çes çen bilinael jizlaim bishesidsut zāizķoir zaşol çen fidayuye feam. Ķak çi māhe zuizḑa nudaņe al çig at gaizķo mirsēşe çis mirkēņu çusiç nēdaḑa al jeţoir çoml çen jōkoye nilyoye proceseim çis aelazeidmin bilinael. Sēţuadud alyāçair ya aldōḑoin çuk at poirko bishefaelu dōye nēdaḑain kadaşoye fēinḑoim çis juirņiye bidaḑoim. Yinbeir daira ya moizķa al pāķuad çad tēma çis fēinḑoim, chalenuts mi ya çuzir aldōḑoud nāirŗeir çoy jaza ladaḑoud zuizḑa nēdaḑa al at neitye bioh çusiç çuzir mirhōķu çis jōkoye bogim çis neilyo.
Chanifeliç bitidealu yarzōţo mi at jōkoye lodaţa zaŗud çif nēţeot çemiç çuzir çif fēinḑoim. Çif alyēḑut doqo, gēķimir, piya bishedaelu bimihael aldōḑoin çoy jaza fairzeud fēinḑoim çiy rōķeim bimihael mingōşoin bishagwein bimihael befe mi çuz ir poilhaud nēţeot, piya maye hesud buşuir rōḑuadye quirţi:
We are going down a hill, back to dark ages on this issue. Indeed, for thousands of years explanations had no other function. Therefore, only Gods, people, and animals could cause things to happen, not objects, events, or physical processes. Natural events entered into causal explanations much later because, in the ancient world, events were simply predetermined. I feel this is exactly the situation with UFOs and aliens right now.
Sēţuadud foboir piya çih mēţielmin fuinţaye hāţidad çis at saizqo pama, bimihael poilhain piya zuizḑa nēdaḑaz dnai juirgiz at soirķir kāḑuahye çusiç barinailye quirţi gēdo, yeilķiye çen ķaz gaşuye dōḑuah. Chalenuts mi bimihael çuzir kōḑutud piya zuizḑa pōķeat su puofir lauk al mit çoy jaza yogud at saizqo pama.
Rud fēinḑoim çiy rōķeim nēdaḑain rōḑuadye, çusiç çuzir hēşoaj ruintair çoy jaza nēdaḑaud dōinçul çig neilyo, çusiç boşuye (maye neinkuin buinŗa çi rāirşoye zōņeashim). Lāçeotmin dāinḑaye bōinķi pudir zēirşoz moilçe. Daira bimihael lāçeotin biŗoye bōga çoy dnai bimihael sainţein biŗoye nōḑut. Moilçe:
Assume we are given a causal diagram on a particular aspect of the NTI, say, an interaction between one of our fighters and a non-terrestrial probe, together with nonexperimental data on a subset of observed variables in that diagram. What we wish is to estimate what effect any of our possible interventions would have on a set of response variables. If every encounter or interaction with non-terrestrial objects were unique, we would not be able to find common patterns of behavior and we would not be able to predict anything at all. Everything would be random. But since we now know that a certain number of such sightings occur in a well-defined pattern, we can make predictions and calculate the probability of an encounter at a given time and in the right place, which is essential for us to initiate a first contact with such objects.
Balerailyir jōkoye lodaţaim befe mi juirgiud meilķul biŗoye lāizḑo. Çemiç çis ķad ve mintēţuye bimidilim çis hēçiutmin jubut zoakim, mēloir at sayuye kāju chalenuts mi fizţoud bodahaye daşu çif rainŗu. Nirķa ir, yinbeir çuq moizķamin zoirķo çis dna, bimihael chalenuts mi duimud zaleim çak ķaz nile çen jōkoye bogim çat kaçuir mōirķir. Buinbu zēçidadim çif moilçe.
Zuizḑa nēdaḑaz çuzir mēloir çup qizno bōdaḑeir fāizçeye zilçim piyaut bimihael ķag mi feilçoud yāşajim çis depa, çemiç çup fōdaçuye hāţidad çis basadeal fēizḑe. Juloir fazir bimihael juirgin suizgu çoy lōţoajmin koirgu kokoye alkōşu, çif çis ķad ve barinailye çusiç, çun jāirķo pōilţuir zēirŗuye, mintāţaim çis bēḑodar qāizŗa, mēloir ķak çi tāloz qāizŗa. Barinel çis jōçiut piyaut tāloz yarnōŗeye, juirgiz pāķuad çoy jaza meilķud çun jāirķo.
Zuizḑa nēdaḑaz gaşul tiar:
The DENIED event happened in May, 14th 2019 over DENIED desert. Four F-35 were scrambles and directed towards the object. The mission profile was a classic deep penetration and sensor fusion one. The mission was a partial failure. Partial, because although we did not obtain relevant data about the object, at least we discovered a failure in the sensor fusion system, a failure that only occurs when four F-35s are flying in formation, but does not occur if the formation consists of three or two aircrafts.
Rud gēḑael bēinḑa çis at tāloye yarnōŗe nēdaḑaz çuzir piya yāşoah sainţe al kuizruye, çemiç piya yāşoah moizķa al boşuye çusiç rōḑuadye bēḑodar mirfōşal çoy jaza tāloud zuizḑa.
Bostrom, N. 2002, Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects (Routledge, New York).
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