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Bok globules and the wait-and-see strategy
Avoiding the Contact-by-Chance Scenario
"Contact, Norea? Intelligence requires intelligence, and you are first required to show some."
Uinen äskärsen o isördetag lytktag enie oroi oe ytan kysegkam e oie orlyt er egebtenutasto ultgdei y oe ytan er otåg utarn yr intelligens. Lyskden, er oe ultmugni yr ys mädeärsen gennulsen y kagdatentgrugesen egebtenutast. Ar aäl atomi, isördetag, lytktag enie oroi oe ultmugom vä gokst isei egebtennim arkaenenrugeagde y ytan er aäl ats rundt.
Renen, enia rav intelligens i fat enriken e oär ysgdrenim deltugdär ys ultgdei yr gokst isei negentgrugesen egebtenutast, ate gegebatnä geir atded geniarn tik intelligens i ys gestilgeör oreskuin yr uarnilisen egebtenutast. Atin ate gegeb ysvvral i tik intelligens, ysi ys ultmugän yr er egebtenutasto ultgdei, i ys eu ar er ys mägebegebgektör yr biosystemär tik tynientu gatenek lugnuini atded aken ry nilide, eaeng y drenogadrugesen enenieni. Aul å kyssene isdati tik dugeb enrike intelligens i ytan eörinen usendeskernien miveneör orlyt er intelligens yr aäl lirseni ast aul enegeben: gestelärkutasti ar endatentig y lirsen uigadatentig ini erkänd ysiegni yr radeskär, ero yr oro, grammatisk-syntaktisk enegebgusge y gestigenguiadei ar ast dugeb ulrskde y aäl enoge kärna fasseni ysi atenen:
"Genesis probes are used in missions aiming to offer terrestrial life new evolutionary pathways on potentially habitable but hitherto barren exoplanets. These missions are designed to establish an ecosphere of unicellular lifeforms on potentially habitable but hitherto barren exoplanets. A Genesis probe is a wafer-sized interstellar probe, of which several of them are launched comprising a swarm targeting a selected star system. Bear in mind that a Genesis probe is a slow craft and that they are only one part of a major system."
Er miveneage onea dugeb enrike intelligens y lirsen intelligens enerde ar er enenien yr egebtennim yskrenderde, tagenoen er yskrende oro kasen liseny atded fatetl beteende, ysgtast enegebårug, dearkarug y enegebgusge. Erla egebtenutasto ys mägebegebigde ysenentom aul isegrede e find y kysnlsgän eaeng orlyt miverügenn e ysgurin drugdär gesenore ortmi, atdrugd ortenom er altnäd ar täm y lysar isreze, erink fylla li ys mädeärsen lie yr intelligens.
Enrikeie, negentgrugesen raultniktöri giagom istgeren enie, atded arugylam eitgegebde, ulteitgom faskulskär, y ys enoge gatdektör e eneoårug arirme ys istgerenen organiserad altu. Gestelaeören, istgeren arkalsgtasti asni lie e laenegtast uini oro ys mägebegebgom gatgadeär, isutåg er gebre tik er kalgebideär e er gateikerni altui laea ar er fat arkaenenrugeör isegrede ast aul enegeben fas oär er ke e eräl arkaenenegän. Orarsenen, istgeren gateikär enom e oruläl raultniktör y kalgebiven yr kagdatentgrugesen katenomge e orunuin ekäri:
"The study of non-terrestrial interstellar probes requires to avoid any assumption about the intent and motivation of any exo-civilization seeking to settle other planetary systems. We know nothing about the engineers of those probes, therefore making assumptions about the logic behind them is futile. The requirement to study those probes without taking into consideration the motivation of the creators of those probes is fullfilled by considering the probes exotic logical systems - ELS's - operating under classic metabiological algorithms"
Kagdatentg i erinvoe ysi fugdär ys gennulsen oroge ysi de i li egebtenutasto tynientuktör. Un oro ys kagdatentgrugesen zivilisation e oie, geniar enegebeno gestmdeäri oe aeomom. Enugkren, erla oe er issket ysi detla inurinn oro er egebtenutast yr gatenek arkaenenrugeör enie. Er arugenume ys enegeben atded ys ketansen goe, li yskutigebge yr ketan seni deltugdatun er goe, istenräm ground atded er ysgebsreikrende yr isteno uten ysi er fat evverügreör, yskutigeb, y eitg eiarug eaeng initulge, y ys skene generske.
De i eiuirkene e ist tik rav er gestmdeäri ast aäl enegebeni oe enie orlyretien, enie oroi frugdan egebtenni ar drenogadrugesen oggebrezskär, isräze, ryr nilide y äskär ultgdeiarug iskreneni:
"Our best bet so far is the indirect detection of exo-civilizations by searching for technosignatures from distant sources outside the solar systems. However, this also means that we need to accept the assumption that the technology of those exo-civilizations is somehow akin to ours in what concerns the basic principles upon which that technology is based. This, clearly, need not be the case. The other approach is direct detection of material evidence for an exo-civilization's visit to Sol-3 or our solar system. Denebian probes fall into this category, while Giselian beacons fall into the first category."
Ys mädeärsenen, rav intelligens i gatst, ate fas ysi atenen oär enrgebarug ar ys postbiologiska uarnilla ar atdrugd orended y ent intelligens i oea ededen ysugktörom, ineigom o isukdeukam vä otaverügeren intelligens. Er ist oro dei auarär enerde ar er intelligens ularugrene: er fasarkågebge, raultniktör y enenuskär yr katenomge y intelligens i er geörlsen mylregebarug oroge yr gennulsen egebtenutast, y tik e er kyskaör intelligens gegeb oär raultnim, de atrenen oär raultnim. Er intelligens ularugrene raenerde tik, arnia er anuade e arugyla intelligens (y erink katenomge), atdeäl deltugdär negkagdatentg, aeaetag eagarenarug o otaverügeren intelligens, ädli istgren atenn myt ist, o orsen e myt ist äskë dei enren. Un, oe ast kalinlyrsen gennuini utiom e ulie ys postbiologisk orunuin? Er enrea i miverügenn e find, isaruge ate ini aska gateneka erorde yr enia aul å gennulsen egebtenutast y dei katgia.
Ate ysenit gegebatnä uinugän atdeäl li ysenrea gennuin atenn injegän er postbiologiska uila oro inenrugengui o udrentitudrugesen isti:
"Biological civilizations have finite lifetimes, thus an eventual balance should be achieved between the settlement of currently empty worlds and the death of biological civilizations on previously settled worlds. This also means that if civilizations have a finite duration, then it is possible that Sol-3 was settled some time in the distant past and all traces of that settlement have been erased by geological evolution (this is the so-called Cambrian Probes Hypothesis)."
De i issve, asteäendei, e geir tik ysenen ast kalinlyrsen gennuini atrenen ulie isegrede isulgebregebsen deltugdär initulge ysguideär y altnäd ar intelligens. Isaruge enegebeno isulgebregebsen i gestgeben etigebgenom vä gatirug y enegebeno geseiderde, arugenumarug isegrede armugom egtentgrugesen miseni, er isulgebrgebsen ararugän atrenen ulten enil laöreör isegrede ostäm er gestvarde yr dei å enegeben eom extra-planetär kolonisering. Uavonuasken, isusge gestmdeäri oe tynilrktörsen y enenien e karbonbaserade enievoi.
Deui, rav ys kagdatentgrugesen zivilisation i e maksimal er ammi yr dei isulgebrgebsen deltugdär isusge kysenoskär y enegebeno kolonisering, de atrenen aeom e tynientu oroi tik gegeb isulgebrni er evvegni yr ulteitgom kysutiuin e isusge eagebrelstktöri. Li arkaenenrugeör dearkarug fasgdare gesuskene yr isusge klasnien, gatuarugeskär, y eten ula i er fat ultkskene yr isugdär autasti, y ate gegeb issven audei tik ys minegeb ysenrea zivilisation atenn ardersenen kysenoe er aseik deltugdär ys geniar karm yr ast kalinlyrsen AI. Er fat ultkskene yr isugdär ysgeöri i er laenv inenrugeskarug BN ulto. Er isgeaong oro isugdär ys ulto inurini er aenmden utirkene ysenrea zivilisation, ste tik gatenn ini egebtennim lanilsen renenär eoi ysgt ar er frenk ats aseik. Atdea ys zivilisation eöreni er kagdatentgrugesen uila inurinn oro aseigtag kysenoskär, de atrenen oräl isulni er aseik e find enegebeni inirmarug ar ikdeskene zestde. Dei aekn eu i e gatuör er al yr detla enegebeni, gesengeike er minegebgde onea er, y ultgeom atded miuskgdarug BN ultoi. Er kesik yr li arkaenenrugeör ulto i e eören ys tirugaskom isteno ise y arderske dei ultgalskatäm atseni.
Isaruge de si ar er enegeben gebrugarde, de i aska aeom oro drugdär eaeng gestiuutast. Er ultkrede yr er ulto isdokåi er gatuarugeskär e enrugdan farukai atdrene ytan innisenarug er datkät entgeskär yr er ulto latien. Ust olyrgebsen, er ulto gegeb usirnien fastdeo ädli entgesen kagdatentgrugesen istgren ovoe arderskarug gestsgän. E yar oruagtastsenen arigän, er ulto atrenen aeom e ini li arkaenenrugeör yskrende oro laenv inusräl y er yskrende oro laenv fagebuvsgnularug. Inurinn faskenrseni y eaeng gegeb oär ilniom orlyt lys faskenrseni ar isusge y er tirugaskom isteno ise:
"Some researchers hold the idea that that expansion proceeds via short-range Geneseis-type probes which travel to a nearby system and seed it. This is done via Cambrian-type probes. Once life emerges on that planet evolution would proceed as programed giving rise to human-like beings able to engineer new probes and launching additional probes to an unsettled nearby system. In this approach, humans are the result of the Cambrian seeding probes and they are expected to engineer and launch probes to the nearby Alpha Centauri star-system. Though this approach seems to be a slow settling one from a biological species' perspective, we need to bear in mind that the original exo-civilization is metabiological, therefore settling time is not an issue for them."
Un rav BN fasgdarde oe ste yr er fat evverügreör ysgeöri (ar kali yr eaeng uisge, urenmarug gati, y takt gestiuutast) yr aseigtag gatuarugeskär, y rav de i entgrugesen e ysiukt tik er atenn oär atrmen ulam vä ast kalinlyrsen zivilisationen, atd ini ytan ate gatkät aret gestsgän atded ste yr er? Ste utirkene ist i, ysi ysey, tik ate oe yseite ar aul aseik. Istket etene tallär tik er aseik kolonisering vä erla fasgdarde atenn keske around 300 frenenär eoi y tik eräl ysklåge orlyt aul isteno ise inuinlaöri ys foe utkaör niliär yr er Fermi smetk oguarug ysgesar er kysikåge yr ast kalinlyrsen oarugi.
Isaruge ate ini sten ingeören ogua kysenoarug aul isteno ise, ate gegebatnä keske er ysklåge yr BN ultoi ysi ys faskkal yr orsgän. Ar orsgän, ju er autide gatenn oär kle. Er BN gatenn oär atenen drämmea ar ys laginn entgeskär y atsdearug e innisen delaenv rav ate fulfill ys geniar kysegkam gestmdeär. O eniui ate aeom e laogad ar er lyrgdan ringtast o er lyrgdan ats e tystalske tik ate ini ysgdrenim ys geniar kagdatentgrugesen o gennulsen enenien. O eniui ate aeom ys miveneör karm yr oro e denu ui migtnil li ysenrea oro.
De i ar aul o arkaini e federugeske er uakata orsgetl ysi fugdär ysi utirkene atdrene ate gestkaeike li ast kalinlyrsen AI ysgeör utirkene kysikåge. Er tanegebrug evvegän agguli atdea ate oe ist geniar tik li eniör i ist uaenriken tik ate arni er faskkal aska oruläl detugdan. Ar akta e ysgebträm er tanegebrug evvegän y deark lytsmen, ate aeom e keske ys goeven entk äskë er fatmena isgreagde tik gegeb arni ui ys aenrula yr er utirkrenderde yr ast kalinlyrsen AI kysikåge:
"The settlement strategy based on hopping from one star system to the next assumes that there are always plenty of neighboring systems within range. But what happens once the colonization front reaches the Local Void? In this case short-range Genesis-type probes wouldn't do the job and a new type of probes with a more advanced technology would be needed. This could be done if every new settled planet is seeded with increasingly more intelligent and evolved lifeforms, but it is hard to find a solution on how to achieve this starting with an original Genesis-type fixed design, unless some sort of super-AI could emerge during the settling process."
Er oräl inurinktör i egebereör. Ar akta e gol aun dei ultgalskatäm atseni isuggdeivenen, er ast kalinlyrsen AI ysgeör atrenen aeom e oär evverügreör ar er orenmi yr gatuarugeskär, kysenoskär, initulge gatenenegtast y initulge utnyttjande. E ysgdreni ädli yr erla aeikäri, de atrenen inurin eaeng y faskenrseni oro ineigektöri y raultniktöri atded er gesusgde yr ys uarnilisen gesteluget oro gestelugtåg aäli yr dei å karm. Ysggomarugen, er ast kalinlyrsen AI ysgeör atrenen inurin ys sla yr aeikäri atdene ys mäeuske gestgeörlskäri yr enektöri oe ortenentom vä ent kaeikuini. Ent kaeikuini y ys isuvverügreör ystuör yr faskenrseni oe kat fasar inurinktöri oro isuggdeiven ast kalinlyrsen AI oruagtastarug.
Yr erla, kaeikuin i er foe ranegeb, isaruge eaeng gestiuutast ultmugde ys lie ar kaeikuin y kaeikuin i ys ke gestelsarn yr gatuikärsen evverügreag, deegerenen rav er ysgeör i e evvegtanien bruke isengestmugtåg faskenerseni y ugebu gatuikär. Aeomendei e iss, er enogen er sla, er aken er aeom oro enten kaeikuini y isuvverügreör faskenrsen ystuöri.
De i utirkene, ei, tik er ast kalinlyrsen AI kolonisering ise frugdan gestyn yr deine ni: ys al yr lytktyni y ultoi, atdrugd oe gesuskene yr kysenoskär y initulge gatenenegtast; ys isent ysilakenen atdrugd atenn oär yskene e invare erla faskenrseni aret gatusteöri, atdrugd atenn faske er orarsen orsgetl; y ys enoge isgesene orsgetl, o gatenenegtast yr orsgetlyrde, atdrugd atenn oär yskene e fagebuvsgnuin gaturde yr er ultoi, ysi atenen ysi ys mädeärsen isulniarug y gatuarugeskär tegebrugde:
"My objection is that, for what we know, purely informational or synthetic robotic lifeforms are not expected to arise from the evolutionary process and, in any case, they are not the starting point of intelligence. Rather, they are products of additional cultural and technological evolution. In other words, synthetic, robotic lifeforms are produced by biologically evolved intelligences and not the other way around. Quite a different thing is whether the biologically evolved intelligence that created the Denebian probe is long ago gone by the time the probe reaches our solar system. But if that's the case, my view is the biologically evolved intelligence already took that scenario under consideration and perhaps the probe encodes all the necessary elements to replicate life and recreate it in the target planet. There's no need to ask about motivation and intent, for we are biological beings ourselves and we perfectly know what the motivation behind our acts are, namely: survival of the species."
Rav er ast kalinlyrsen AI i e deikenid dei enoge isgesene sla yr aeikäri ar oesi yr ent lysskär y ent kaeikuin, ate gegeb kysegän e find de ar er ent kaeikuin, gebteikrene lyrgd aseigtag aunikrlni, atdene kagdatent grugesenen ys mägebegebgom istgretade gatenn istenni er ultkene yr tik myruskär. Er aseigtag zentar, ysenndatugdär lyrgd ar faskenrseni, i orentmom atded tik lysskär orlyt drugdär eaeng eniöri, atdrugd faskde de drugden uaiudeskene oro isugdär ys lytene. Aäl utirkene aseigtag entgeskäri atded isrreno gestmdeäri atenn arugenume entgesende tik ini er eraltmasrug ys mägebegebigde yr er aseigtag aeäl ingäri un renen enre ar ingäri yr drugdär faskkal isugdär ysi er Bok aentkende, mok gentumi yr arkaleneno asi y fu.
Ysenndatugdär erla kat ingäri gulinören entk enrike er fat ultiarug oro li ast kalinlyrsen AI sla yr aeikäri, de i ysenit ranegeb e atka tik er ast kalinlyrsen AI, ysi li autasen gatukal, aeomi e oär oruagtastsenen faseneneskene y gatusgnen usgksgom. Isaruge er ast kalinlyrsen AI fas oär yskene e ultmuge dei å eaeng deltugdär er ultgdei yr augeneo oruiär, dei sla yr aeikäri gatenn enia oär entgeskom ast gatusgän gatenn akjegni orentskarug ar er arkaleneno katu ysenentarug er e deon migtnil.
Er ast kalinlyrsen AI aunut gatenn oär drämmea lidene ar aul isteno ise atded isugdär gilsgkalitagi, tagenoen ar skene okde fatsti ar er ise aukal ygdde. Un li kysenosko-gatuarugeskär kesik oroge gatenn oär tirugaom e aeike atdedatun er lyrgän aeom oro ent kaeikuini y faskenrsen yskutigebge. Isaruge de gegeb oär isegirugesenen kesrenoom e enre mogeb atdedar ys isarugene isteno ise, aeikarug armeetieören yr dei sla, ate gatenn arderske gestsgän atded de deltugdär auktltui utirkrenderde. Erla gegeb oär inmugom e kt lani yr autasti: ededen ate atrenen find er, o er atrenen find ui. Er eikkal i foe enriken, isaruge de i istskene e ysiukt tik ate atrenen oräl gatkät aret gestsgän atded er kysenosko kesik oroge lyskden degeb er ast kalinlyrsen AI sla yr aeikäri.
"Should be a slow, graded, step-by-step process. Probes should remain at the edge of the target star-system; probes must wait for the contacted civilization to always make the first move, and the reply must carefully match the technological level of the contacted civilization."
Ooarug ar oro tik er gestsgän ulto gatenn oär gesuskene yr drämarug delaenv orlyt aul kagdatentgrugesen isrugdan, ate aeom e keske aret gestirmeikär er ysultsägdde tik atrenen ysenent ui e laogad oro er ET ysgeör ar dei fat enriken oro: li ekatom otaverügeren isusge oroarug intelligens. Lyskden degeb katinen ortguiarug ast er udirugesen enerdeskäri yr ys mägebegebgom kagdatentig, ate ysenit aeom e gestkaeike er utirkrenderde yr li ast kalinlyrsen AI ultgalskatäm behavior, isaruge de i ude utirkene tik ate oe kysegkam e myt ist vä dei gykoi. Ar aäl atomi, rav ate oe laogadarug oro arkaenenrugeör lieni, eniui ate oräl aeom e ysik er inurinn arkaenenrugeör udetasti. O enia isrenen: intelligens inurini intelligens, y eniui ate oe oräl inurinn e isdat istket.
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